New energy passenger car lithium battery demand may reach 82GWh in 2020

Driven by the strong upward momentum of the European new energy vehicle market, battery demand has recovered. In this report, Bloomberg New Energy Finance adjusted its supply and demand forecasts for the important battery metal market, and put forward new perspectives on energy storage demand. The processing of lithium, cobalt, nickel, and manganese ore has basically dissipated the impact of the epidemic, and work and production are gradually resuming. Battery demand Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s 2020 new energy passenger car battery demand forecast is raised from 71GWh to 82GWh. In this report, the method of forecasting the adoption rate has changed, and we have lowered the energy storage demand forecast. In 2020, the total demand for energy storage is expected to reach 6GWh, and the forecast put forward in the first half of the year is 23GWh. Technical route Due to the continuous increase in the adoption rate of my country's lithium iron phosphate technical route, we also raised the share of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the energy storage market from 34% to 71% in 2030. However, in all terminal applications, the lithium iron phosphate technology route in 2030 is currently forecast to account for 25% of the battery cathode material market, which is only slightly higher than the 23% estimated in the previous report. Lithium We predict that the lithium resource market will be adequately supplied next year. If Australian miners continue to restrict production, the price of spodumene will rebound in 2021. The lithium carbonate market is expected to still exceed demand next year, but due to the rapid recovery of demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries in my country, my country's domestic lithium carbonate prices are expected to rise, while the ex-factory prices of lithium carbonate will remain stable. Next year, the supply of lithium hydroxide market will be tight, and prices are expected to bottom out. With the recovery of global demand for high-nickel power lithium batteries for new energy vehicles, prices will rise. At the end of this year, the primary nickel market is expected to have a slight supply shortage of 41,700 tons, accounting for about 4% of the demand. We expect that the primary nickel market will return to balance in 2021, but there may still be a potential supply gap in 2023. Bloomberg New Energy Finance cost analysis shows that the price of nickel must be between 15,000 and 18,000 US dollars per ton to stimulate investment in primary nickel refining production. Cobalt Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that there will be a supply gap of 14,200 tons in the cobalt ore market in 2021. The important reason is that Glencore announced before the epidemic that it will suspend Mutanda before 2022. The tightening of supply will support the cobalt price to reach 35,000 US dollars/ton next year, until the artisanal mining supply is fully restored in the second half of the year. We expect that as long as the global travel restrictions are lifted, cobalt prices will resume. The production of artisanal cobalt mining in 2021 is expected to be only about 15,000 tons, of which about 10,000 tons will come from verifiable sources (that is, tracked through the company's responsible procurement plan). Manganese Bloomberg New Energy Finance predicts that there will be no shortage of battery-grade high-purity manganese sulfate monohydrate (HPMSM) by 2030. The current risk-adjusted output of high-purity manganese sulfate is approximately 60,000 tons. The total output of the current output in 2020 is about 40,000 tons, while the demand is expected to be only 37,000 tons+. However, more than 95% of the production of high-purity manganese sulfate monohydrate is in my country, highlighting the necessity of regional diversified investment. Several key projects outside my country are still under development, including the European manganese industry's project in the Czech Republic and Canada's manganese X energy project, and the American manganese industry's deployment of battery cathode precursor material recycling business in the United States. Graphite According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance's research on battery start-ups, silicon-based anode is one of the battery anode technologies that replace the graphite system. Companies such as Leyden-Jar, NanoGraf, Advano and Group14 plan to produce 23,000 tons of silicon-based anodes by 2025. However, silicon-based anodes have to overcome great technical obstacles before they can be popularized and applied. Bloomberg New Energy Finance believes that silicon-based anodes will not replace graphite systems in the battery anode market before 2025. A set of data 82GWh adjusted 2020 new energy passenger vehicle lithium battery demand 35,000 US dollars / ton The potential level of cobalt prices in the first half of 2021 is 16,000 US dollars / ton to stimulate the increase in investment in the production of nickel refining nickel price statement : Part of the pictures and content of the articles published on this site are from the Internet. If there is any infringement, please contact to delete the previous article: Is there any opportunity for 'newcomers' in the power lithium-ion battery industry?