The average global battery pack price in 2020 will drop by 13% from the previous year

Between 2010 and 2020, the global average price of lithium battery packs dropped from US$1,100/kWh to US$137/kWh, a decrease of 89%. According to the latest forecast of Bloomberg New Energy Finance, by 2023, the average price of lithium battery packs will be close to US$100/kWh. Since Bloomberg New Energy Finance began its survey in 2010, this year's survey samples of less than US$100/kWh have appeared for the first time. This sample comes from the battery pack of my country's electric bus, which is slightly higher than the average price of my country's electric bus battery pack at $105/kWh. (Source: micro-channel public number Bloomberg New Energy Finance; ID: BloombergNEF; Author: BNEF) lithium battery pack prices Bloomberg New Energy lithium battery materials research with application scenarios covering passenger cars, electric buses and commercial vehicles, such as different vehicles (pack) And energy storage battery pack (rack). In terms of different battery application scenarios, the average price of a battery pack for a pure electric passenger vehicle (BEV) is US$126/kWh. Among them, the average price of batteries for pure electric vehicles is US$100/kWh, and non-electric batteries account for 21% of the price of battery packs. Driven by the expansion of orders, the increase in sales of pure electric vehicles, and the continuous optimization of battery cell and battery pack design, the average global battery pack price in 2020 will drop by 13% compared with the previous year. Raw material prices were high in March 2018. After three years of continuous decline, raw material prices will stabilize in 2020. In the next few years, manufacturers' adoption of new battery material systems, continuous optimization of processing technology, and continuous improvement of cost control capabilities will help further reduce the price of battery packs. Bloomberg New Energy Finance's 'Lithium Battery Price Survey 2020' predicts that by 2023, the average price of lithium battery packs is expected to drop to US$101/kWh. James Frith, head of energy storage research at Bloomberg New Energy Finance and an important author of the report, said: 'This year's survey revealed battery packs with a price of less than US$100/kWh, witnessing a historic moment in the lithium battery industry. The average price of global lithium battery packs is expected to drop to US$100/kWh soon. More importantly, our analysis shows that even if the price of raw materials returns to the high point in 2018, the impact of high prices is limited to the period when the average battery pack price drops to US$100/kWh by two years, but it will not cause the industry Development is off track. In the future, lithium battery manufacturers will become more resilient to changes in raw material prices. Leading battery manufacturers have increased their deployment in the upstream of the industrial chain, investing in battery cathode material processing and even entering the mining business. quotCurrently, the average gross profit margin of leading battery manufacturers has reached 20%, and the plant operating rate has exceeded 85%. Keeping the operating rate at a high level is the key to reducing the prices of batteries and battery packs. If the plant operating rate is low, the equipment and building depreciation costs for battery production will increase accordingly. Li Daixin, senior analyst of energy storage at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, added: quotThe battery technology routes on the market are becoming more and more diversified, and the costs of different technical routes vary greatly. Battery manufacturers are competing to deploy higher energy density technology routes. In addition to the currently mass-produced NCM (811) and NCA, emerging systems such as the NCMA quaternary system and NCM (9.5.5) will also be promoted in 2021-22. market. However, on the other hand, as a very cost-competitive technical route, lithium iron phosphate (LFP) not only rapidly rebounds in the automotive sector, but also dominates the energy storage sector. The lowest price sample of the battery cell we investigated this year came from a lithium iron phosphate battery, which was US$80/kWh. quotLooking forward, although factors such as rising commodity prices will still bring some uncertainty to the decline of battery prices, the path to drop to US$101/kWh by 2023 is very clear. In contrast, for the long-term reduction of the price from US$100/kWh to US$58/kWh in 2030, there are still many variables in the cost reduction path. This is because reducing the battery price to $58/kWh will largely rely on the advancement of the next-generation technical route, and it seems that the next-generation technical route has many uncertainties in the choice and optimization direction of the technical route. Solid-state battery technology is the most potential technical route to achieve mid- to long-term battery cost reduction. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance's calculations, if solid-state batteries achieve mass production and develop a complete industrial chain, it is expected to drive battery processing costs down 40% from the current level. The reduction in material costs and the simplification of processing procedures brought about by changes in battery structure and key raw material systems are important driving forces for cost reduction. In the future, the continuous optimization of electrode manufacturing processes and the application of high-energy density cathode systems will open up more room for cost reduction. Regarding the cost optimization of solid-state batteries, establishing a cost-competitive supply chain of key raw materials such as solid electrolytes and metal lithium anodes is the most critical link. Disclaimer: Some pictures and content of articles published on this site are from the Internet. If there is any infringement, please contact to delete. Previous post: The thermal runaway problem of lithium batteries has caused concern in the energy storage industry