The attractiveness of new energy traditional battery leaders has declined, and midstream manufacturing has suddenly emerged?

Li Aiqi (Intern) On October 9, the State Council executive meeting passed the 'New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan.' The plan clearly states that by 2025, the sales of new energy vehicles will account for 25%, and from 2021, the use of new energy vehicles will reach 80% in the national ecological civilization experimental zone and key areas for air pollution prevention and control. As soon as the plan was released, it attracted widespread attention. Guosen Securities believes that as the “Plan” puts forward the goal of “increase key technology research and encourage the development and innovation of vehicle operating systems, power lithium batteries, etc.”, the core link of power lithium batteries has become the industry’s main goal. Focus on the category. At present, the new energy vehicle market has increasingly higher requirements for midstream lithium batteries. It has gradually shifted from a single energy density index to a comprehensive consideration of multiple factors such as cycle life and safety, energy density and manufacturing cost. With the upgrading of technology and demand, Here comes the recovery of the midstream industry. Hexafluorocarbon manufacturers in the midstream industry have been at a low profit point for three years in the past. By the beginning of the year, the price has fallen below the leading cost price. According to Soochow Securities data, the leading company Tianci Materials has lost money in the first half of 2010, with a gross profit margin of -1%. Many leading companies fell to meager profits (less than 5%). But in the past month, thanks to the good development of downstream companies, the price of hexafluorocarbon has been raised three times. The announcement of the 'Plan' quickly lifted the lithium battery sector. It is worth noting that the current round of growth of midstream manufacturing companies such as Tianci and Tianci is much higher than that of traditional battery leaders such as CATL and Enjie. According to statistics from Flush, Tianci Materials has reached its daily limit 7 times this year. Does the rise in the lithium battery sector mean that the midstream electric vehicle industry will usher in a turnaround after years of falling prices and declining profits? Will the midstream leader of electric vehicles continue to rise in the future? As the prosperity of the lithium battery industry continues to improve, there is a strong demand for hexafluoride and electrolyte, and the price of hexafluoride and electrolyte continues to rise. In the second half of 2020, the global new energy vehicle market gradually emerged from the haze of the epidemic in the first half of the year, and demand for electric vehicles rose rapidly. According to the data of Guodu Securities, the mass production of new energy vehicles in August this year was 105,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 48%; the total installed battery power was approximately 5.12 million kWh, a year-on-year increase of 43%. The recovery of the new energy vehicle market has driven the prosperity of the entire industry chain. From the demand side, according to the breakdown of China Merchants Securities, the global demand for new energy vehicles from the second half of 2018 to the first half of 2019 will exceed the global demand for new energy vehicles from the second half of 2020 to the first half of 2021. The overall demand for lithium batteries in the second half of the year is expected to be about 170GWh. Corresponding to the demand for hexafluoride is about 21,000 tons, the global demand for hexafluoride will reach 44-50,000 tons next year. In addition, the demand for non-vehicle lithium batteries continues to rise, and the replacement of lithium batteries in the power tools, electric two-wheelers, 3C and energy storage markets will also gradually begin in the future. Continued positive demand on the demand side will drive up the prices of hexafluoride and electrolytes. From July to September this year, the price of hexafluoride, which has continued to fall for many years, bottomed out and rebounded from 69,500 yuan/ton to 76,500 yuan/ton. As the price of hexafluoride rises, the price of electrolyte will gradually rise, according to the industry. The association feedback that the electrolyte price has risen by 0.1-0.2 million yuan/ton recently. Reasonable price increases are conducive to bringing greater profit margins to lithium battery companies. However, from a longer-term perspective, the overall price of power lithium batteries is still trending downward, and the midstream positive electrode, negative electrode and other material categories will not continue to rise due to the short-term imbalance of supply and demand. From the perspective of the cost structure of the battery pack, battery cell raw materials account for the largest proportion, of which the cathode material accounts for the largest proportion. According to open source securities data, the cathode cost accounts for as much as 38% of the total cost, while the electrolyte cost only accounts for 4.89%. At present, the price of cathode materials is gradually decreasing with mature and large-scale processing, and decobaltization has become a new trend in the cathode industry, which means that the price of cathode materials will further decline. The electrolyte has weak bargaining power for downstream companies, coupled with the simultaneous increase in the cost of upstream raw materials, so even if the selling price rises, the improvement of the company's profit is still limited. It is more likely that the rising electrolyte price due to demand exceeding demand will be offset by the lower price of the cathode material. The decline in the price of lithium batteries is the industry trend, which means that the operating income of the midstream industry is subject to price declines and may follow. The decline in the company’s profit margin further compressed. On the other hand, with the gradual increase in the price of hexafluoride, more and more companies will join the competition. At present, Tianci Materials has already planned to expand production. In addition to industry leaders, many small and medium-sized companies will further expand production under the stimulation of prices. , Will further improve the situation of temporary imbalance between supply and demand, prompting the price of hexafluoride to fall. An institutional investor in the new energy industry believes that the midstream battery manufacturing industry cannot get rid of the characteristics of long-term cyclical stocks. 'In the past, the phenomenon that saw the profitability of these companies turn from prosperity to decline will reappear,' the person said. According to relevant data from China Merchants Securities, in recent years, the gross profit margin of the hexafluoro-head Duo Fluoride and Skyrim shares have continued to decline, and even suffered losses this year: the gross profit margin of Fluoride Fluoride has dropped from 47.8% in 1026 to 30% this year, and Skyrim shares have increased from 2016. From 77.7% in 2010 to -0.6% in 2020. Taking Tianji as an example, the main reason for the decline in gross profit margin is the sharp decline in operating income. According to the company's announcement, revenue in 2019 has fallen by nearly 30% year-on-year. Snowball author Liu Yiyi believes that the current price increase of hexafluoride is caused by market supply and demand, but the increase in electrolyte prices is unlikely to bring more profits to the industry. In the long run, the electric vehicle policy will drive the accelerated development of the entire industry, and the downstream demand for lithium battery companies is huge, but it is not clear whether the midstream industry can continue to benefit from it. Disclaimer: Some pictures and content of the articles published on this site are from the Internet. If there is any infringement, please contact to delete.