Recovery of the global cobalt market is imminent

In November this year, global cobalt prices recovered strongly. Many market research institutions have stated that despite the current trend of 'cobalt-free batteries' in the electric vehicle industry, the global demand for cobalt will continue to rise in the next 10 years. Slow recovery of demand for pictures According to the latest data released by the consulting agency Roskill, affected by the new crown pneumonia epidemic, demand in the global cobalt market has risen slightly this year, and the total consumption is expected to be about 136,000 tons. However, YingLu, a senior analyst at Roskill, pointed out that due to the impact of the epidemic, the demand for cobalt in the aviation sector declined most significantly in the first half of this year. In contrast, the electric vehicle and wearable device battery sectors performed well. Among them, the demand for cobalt in the electric vehicle sector increased by 5%-10% year-on-year. On the supply side, Roskill believes that this year's global refined cobalt production will fall by 5% year-on-year, and overall it is only slightly more than 130,000 tons. This is the first decline in global cobalt production since 2016. Among them, the global mining giant Glencore has significantly reduced its output of cobalt mining this year due to the impact of the epidemic. With market demand picking up and supply tightening, global cobalt prices have been rising in recent months. According to the latest data released by BenchmarkMinerals, a London consultancy, from July to the end of October, European cobalt prices have risen by 15%. Roskill also pointed out that the global cobalt supply is obviously tight this year, which has pushed up the price of all forms of cobalt products. Battery manufacturers are still the largest customers. Many industry organizations predict that in the long run, global cobalt demand will remain strong. YingLu said that it is expected that in the next 10 years, the global electric vehicle industry will continue to expand rapidly, and the portable electronic equipment industry will also make breakthroughs. Under this circumstance, the demand for cobalt-containing lithium batteries will remain strong and the cobalt market will also be supported. . It is estimated that by 2030, global cobalt demand will double on the current basis. The latest forecast report released by the mining market research institution BMI also shows that by the end of this year, 57% of the global cobalt demand will come from the battery sector; and by 2025, this proportion will rise to 72%. By then, the global battery industry will bring The demand for cobalt will reach 100,000 tons. Egor Prokhodtsev, senior analyst of raw materials for electric vehicles at Roskill, pointed out that because governments have actively introduced economic recovery policies after the epidemic, and are also actively promoting the green energy transition, global electric vehicle sales have recovered. 'We believe that during the fourth quarter of this year, global electric vehicle sales will rise, and for the whole year, this year's electric vehicle sales will see a double-digit growth year-on-year.' At the same time, in other battery consumption areas such as smartphones, The rebound in market conditions in the fourth quarter of this year also boosted the demand for cobalt. Roskill believes that with the recovery of the macroeconomics of various countries in the fourth quarter of this year, smartphone sales may be equal to last year's level, which will promote the increase in cobalt demand. At the same time, as 5G networks are rolled out in many countries, the demand for batteries for connected devices in the Internet of Things system will also push up the consumption of cobalt. The 'cobalt-free' trend puts pressure on the market. Although the general trend is positive, the cobalt market is also facing pressure from industry changes. In February of this year, American electric vehicle company Tesla announced that it would develop 'cobalt-free batteries' and has introduced cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate batteries in the US and European markets. At the same time, Ningde Times, a leading battery manufacturing company, is also actively developing 'cobalt-free batteries.' According to the information currently disclosed, the company is actively improving the overall supply chain of 'cobalt-free batteries'. Some market research institutions predict that the cobalt content in Tesla's new generation of high-nickel batteries will drop below 1%, which is much lower than that of traditional lithium batteries. However, many analysis institutions still believe that although industry giants have expressed their support for 'cobalt-free batteries,' in the short term, it is still difficult for the batteries used in electric vehicles to completely get rid of their dependence on cobalt. BMI commented in its industry report that although the timetable for the 'cobalt-free' of electric vehicle batteries is not yet clear, and electric vehicle manufacturers still have technical difficulties in deploying this technology, the current use of cobalt per kilowatt-hour in batteries has continued to decline. It is an indisputable fact that 'cobalt-free' will be an unpreventable trend. Disclaimer: Some pictures and content of articles published on this site are from the Internet. 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