Lithium battery manufacturers analyze that under the pressure of subsidy policy, is there any way out for lithium iron phosphate?

According to the analysis of lithium battery manufacturers, on December 3, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the 'New Energy Vehicle Promotion and Application Recommended Model Catalog (12th batch in 2018)Models. Among the products, there are 57 models, 105 models, pluggable plug-ins, a total of 16 models of 8 hybrid products and 12 models of 7 fuel cell products. The 'Recommended Catalogue for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles' can reflect the development trend of new energy vehicles and the layout and arrangement of vehicles and batteries by enterprises to a certain extent. Data source: SMM of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology The above figure shows the models and corresponding battery types in the 12 batches of new energy vehicle promotion catalogs released since 2018. Among them, since the fifth batch of promotional catalogues in 2018, the application of ternary batteries in pure electric passenger vehicles has increased significantly, reflecting the overall rapid transformation of products before the implementation of the new subsidy policy. The amount of lithium manganese oxide installed in the plug-in hybrid passenger car is very high, and it also has good performance in the installation of special vehicles. It is worth noting that plug-in hybrid passenger cars have basically achieved ternary, and lithium iron phosphate batteries have gradually withdrawn from this market. Recently, the auto industry has begun a new round of speculation on the subsidy policy for new energy vehicles in 2019. OEMs and battery factories have also begun to prepare for policies that may be implemented next year. At present, the new energy passenger car market for lithium iron phosphate batteries with the largest capacity is close to saturation. Driven by policies, ternary batteries continue to penetrate the new energy passenger car market. In the future, what will happen to the development of lithium iron phosphate lithium battery factories? What is the impact on upstream cathode materials? Analysis of the impact of new energy subsidy policies on lithium iron phosphate battery factories in the online version For the judgment of the battery model in the next two years, most industry participants currently adopt subsidy policies for new energy. Approaching the end of the year, the new energy vehicle subsidy policy for 2019 has also continuously triggered industry discussions. According to the most widely distributed version, the new energy vehicle subsidy withdrawal version in 2019 is as follows: For lithium iron phosphate battery manufacturers, the current technological level of the industry is more polarized. According to industry insiders, the current average energy density of China's lithium iron phosphate battery system is about 120Wh/kg; lithium iron phosphate battery manufacturers, such as Guoneng Battery, said the energy density of their lithium iron phosphate standard boxes has reached 155Wh/kg. According to the online version of the new energy subsidy policy, the energy density requirement in 2019 will increase from 120wh/kg this year to 140wh/kg. Currently, most lithium iron phosphate companies cannot meet the subsidy threshold next year. Faced with the upcoming new energy subsidy policy, lithium iron phosphate battery manufacturers can divide their future layout plans into the following three categories: First, through Guoxuan Hi-Tech, Guoneng Battery and other companies as representatives. These companies currently master the most advanced lithium iron phosphate lithium battery technology, and are in a leading position in the industry regardless of energy density level or performance. At the same time, many industry experts told SMM that considering the advent of the subsidy-free era, the future development of batteries must focus on safety as the main development core. Compared with ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries, safety and cost do not seem to be so advantageous. For companies that are already far ahead of lithium iron phosphate technology, when they consider the future layout, they decide to continue to cultivate this market. Second, the coexistence category is represented by companies such as BYD. BYD was previously occupied by lithium iron phosphate batteries, and more ternary batteries were installed in March this year than lithium iron phosphate batteries. The parallel of ternary and lithium iron phosphate is a stopgap measure for most battery companies in the post-subsidy era. Some companies that are mainly based on ternary batteries and supplemented by lithium iron phosphate batteries told SMM that next year’s policies are expected to increase the energy density requirements, and the output of lithium iron phosphate batteries will be reduced by 20%-30% next year. . Third, the transformation category is mainly small enterprises. For these companies, it is extremely difficult to catch up with the energy density requirements of the subsidy policy in a short time. In the current situation where most original equipment manufacturers face financial pressure, if the lithium iron phosphate batteries produced cannot receive new energy subsidies, most of the downstream billing pressure will be transferred to these battery companies. SMM understands that most of these companies have transformed into consumer lithium battery markets with greater future development potential, such as power tools and energy storage markets. Analysis of the impact on upstream raw materials According to SMM research, China’s lithium iron phosphate cathode materials have overcapacity and have been destocked since the beginning of this year. For large lithium iron phosphate anode factories, the current orders are still relatively sufficient, and some seem to be in short supply. From now on at the beginning of this year, it has planned to stop production and reduce production. Taking into account the adjustment of demand for lithium iron phosphate by some downstream battery factories next year, some lithium iron phosphate producers have turned to energy storage, and this market has greater development potential. Lithium iron phosphate is still in the destocking stage next year. SMM expects that the output of lithium iron phosphate next year will be the same as this year. Disclaimer: The articles published on this site are all from the Internet and do not represent the views of this site. If there is any infringement, please contact to delete WeChat: Disclaimer: Some pictures and content of the articles published on this site are from the Internet. If there is any infringement, please contact delete A: Energy storage battery manufacturers analyze global lithium battery industry production capacity