Tesla's two-line layout, ternary and lithium iron phosphate batteries are flying together

On the first day after the holiday, the A-share lithium battery sector opened sharply. Among them, Sanyuan and lithium iron phosphate cathode material related stocks performed eye-catching. Rongbai Technology and Dangsheng Technology had their daily limits within 30 minutes of opening. In addition, the nickel mining concept Qingdao Zhongcheng Yi The daily limit of the word board; in terms of lithium iron phosphate, Germany's Nami and BYD rose 12.63% and 6.33% respectively as of the morning's close. On the news, during the double festival period, Tesla announced the third price cut of the domestic Model 3 in a year. The standard battery life upgraded version will be priced at 249,900 yuan after the subsidy, and the long-life rear-wheel drive version will be priced at 309,000 yuan after the subsidy. CITIC Securities and other institutions Some industry insiders believe that the price reduction is rooted in the localization of the supply chain and the new loading of Ningde era lithium iron phosphate batteries. Earlier, people familiar with the matter revealed that Tesla is preparing to start selling China-made Model 3 with cobalt-free lithium iron phosphate batteries. car. At the same time, some foreign media reported that Tesla is negotiating with the world's largest miner BHP Billiton on a nickel transaction, and intends to ensure nickel supply to increase battery production. Vale also said on Friday (3rd) that it is negotiating with Tesla and other electric vehicle companies to obtain nickel from its Canadian business to ensure that it needs electric vehicles in the next 5 to 8 years. The former's business in Canada Across three provinces, it is expanding its Voisey's Bay plant into an underground plant that will process approximately 40,000 tons of nickel concentrate each year. Since it was reported at the beginning of the year that the domestic Tesla or the Ningde era LFP battery was handed in, the comparison between the ternary positive electrode and the lithium iron phosphate positive electrode has been endless. Since then, BYD's 'blade battery' was launched and Tesla again proposed the 'cobalt-free high nickel' concept on Battery Day, which gradually pushed the market's discussion of the two to the top. CITIC Securities Song Shaoling’s team reported on the 9th that the domestically produced Model 3 standard battery life upgraded version was replaced with Ningde era LFP batteries, which promoted the third price reduction in 2020. It is assumed that the cost of the battery pack is reduced by up to 0.10 yuan/Wh cost savings per unit battery. About 5,000 yuan. At the same time, the report predicts that the current LFP battery Model 3 still has a gross margin of about 25%, and there is room for further price reductions in the future. In addition, it should be pointed out that the September deliveries announced by the new domestic electric vehicle powers Weilai Automobile, Xiaopeng Automobile, and Ideal ONE during the double festival show that the delivery volume of Weilai Automobile and Xiaopeng Automobile in September and the third quarter all reached monthly, Quarterly deliveries were recorded. Ideal ONE continued to achieve a month-on-month increase in deliveries for the third month, setting a new quarterly delivery in the third quarter. Overlapping BYD models equipped with blade batteries were popular in the market, and competition in the domestic market further intensified. At this node, Tesla once again used LFP to cut prices. Does it mean that it is inclined to the LFP battery line? From the performance of Tesla's frequent contact with nickel suppliers, Tesla is more inclined to walk on 'two legs' in this seemingly all-or-nothing choice. In fact, this may also be an inevitable choice for the future development of lithium batteries under the wave of electrification. GGII data shows that my country’s cathode material shipments for H1 in 2020 were 173,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.9%, of which ternary battery shipments were 14.08GWh, which is still the mainstream in the new energy passenger car market; LFP battery power category in the first half of the year The shipment volume is 7.7GWh, and the proportion of power lithium battery shipments has clearly rebounded, which is related to the switch to lithium iron phosphate batteries in some of the low- and medium-range models of passenger car manufacturers. According to data, LFP batteries were once considered to be the preferred cathode material for power lithium batteries due to their long cycle life. In the early days, the United States and my country used it as the mainstream cathode material. However, since 2014, because subsidies have been linked to battery energy density and cruising range, the development of LFP batteries has been limited due to their energy density bottlenecks, and the penetration rate of ternary batteries has increased. However, since last year, the LFP battery pack has adopted the CTP (module-free) method, which has greatly increased the volumetric energy density (increased the cruising range), reduced the battery cost, and improved the cost-effectiveness of the LFP battery. The CTP integration efficiency of the Ningde era has increased from 75% to 90%, the system energy density is increased to 160Wh/kg, which greatly reduces costs. BYD blade battery has a cruising range of 605KM and battery energy density is 140wh/kg. Zhongtai Securities believes that as subsidies continue to decline and auto companies face the pressure of continuing to reduce costs, the current price of LFP batteries is lower. At the same time, through the use of large modules or CTP modules without modules, the volumetric energy density has been greatly increased, and the battery life has been improved. mileage. In the short term, in the next 2-3 years, LFP batteries may be considered for use in the low-end and medium-end passenger car category (operational vehicles) that are highly cost-sensitive. As a result, the proportion of passenger cars using LFP batteries will increase. However, as the Ningde era official said when they rejected the rumors of abandoning the three yuan 811 battery, if you give up the 811, you have given up the high-end market. This is the only way for power lithium batteries to fight for the dominance and right to speak. In the category of high-end models, three Yuan battery will still be one of the most important battlefields for major automakers to compete. Su Chen, a researcher at Zhongtai Securities, reported in June that the proportion of LFP in low-end and mid-range models (low cruising range or operational vehicles) that are highly cost-sensitive will increase; while mid- and high-end models pursue improved vehicle performance, ternary batteries It is easier to meet its needs in terms of range, power consumption, fast charge performance, and sense of space. High-density energy batteries will continue to occupy an important share of the general trend. In the future, as high-density energy battery technology matures and achieves cost reduction, the relative advantages will be appear. In the medium and long term, in the future, LFP batteries and ternary batteries in the passenger car category will be used in different models and different usage scenarios to achieve coexistence by virtue of their own advantages and disadvantages. Disclaimer: Some pictures and content of the articles published on this site are from the Internet. If there is any infringement, please contact to delete it. Previous: What are the big tricks that Tesla put on 'Battery Day'? Take a look