What factors will affect the development of power lithium-ion batteries?

Recently, the my country (Qinghai) Lithium Industry and Power Lithium-ion Battery International Summit Forum hosted by the Qinghai Provincial People's Government, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the my country Electric Vehicle Hundreds Association was held in Xining, Qinghai. More than a thousand people from the domestic and foreign industries conducted discussions and exchanges on the theme of promoting the coordinated development of the lithium industry. Increasing levels and increasing competition. According to statistics, the total sales of new energy vehicles in my country currently exceed 50% of the global share, reaching 777,000 units in 2017, an increase of 53.3% year-on-year. According to industry experts, sales of new energy vehicles are expected to reach 2 million units by 2020, and the corresponding demand for power lithium-ion batteries will reach 88GWh. The technical level of my country's power lithium-ion battery is rapidly improving, and some indicators have reached the international advanced level. Among them, the energy density of power lithium-ion battery cells exceeds 240Wh per kilogram, and the cost of power lithium-ion batteries is also rapidly falling due to large-scale processing. The battery cells have dropped from 5 yuan/Wh in 2012 to the current 1 yuan. /Wh or so. At the same time, the degree of automation of lithium battery processing equipment has also been greatly improved. The automation rate of first-line companies has exceeded 65%, which has played an important role in ensuring product quality. At the same time, my country's power lithium-ion battery market is experiencing coexistence of tight supply and overproduction. Data show that in 2017, my country's power lithium-ion battery production has exceeded 200GWh, but the overall production utilization rate is only 40%. The market is extremely polarized. The supply of high-end and high-quality products is in short supply, and the sales of low-end production are difficult, showing a structural oversupply. Huang Shilin, vice chairman of Ningde Times New Energy Technology Co., Ltd. predicts that the oversupply of power lithium-ion batteries may continue until 2020 Years later. The competitive environment in the power lithium-ion battery field has gradually moved from the initial extensive competition to the refined competition. With the intensified market competition, some power lithium-ion battery companies with low thresholds and backward technology have gradually been eliminated, and the industry reshuffle has accelerated. Data show that my country's power lithium-ion battery supporting companies have dropped from about 150 in 2015 to about 100 in 2017, and one-third of the companies have been eliminated. Upstream materials are hot. Although my country is rich in lithium resources, its endowment is not good, the utilization rate is relatively low, the key materials nickel and cobalt are scarce, and the degree of external dependence is high. With the development of the industry, battery companies have shifted from competing for customers to competing for upstream materials and resources. Lithium, cobalt, and nickel resources around the world are very hot, showing the characteristics of oligopoly. In the long run, there are resource security risks. Zhang Yongwei, secretary-general and chief expert of the my country Electric Vehicles Association, said that the prices of upstream materials such as lithium and cobalt required for lithium battery processing have risen rapidly in recent years, and the demand for lithium and cobalt has increased sharply. According to statistics, my country's power-type lithium battery shipments reached 39.1GWh in 2017, accounting for about 50% of the overall scale of the lithium battery industry. Among them, the shipment of automotive power lithium-ion batteries reached 38GWh, accounting for 65.4% of the global automotive power lithium-ion battery shipments. It is expected that with the development of new energy vehicles and energy storage markets, the production and sales scale of lithium batteries will further expand , Which also brings huge demand for resources such as lithium and cobalt. In recent years, the prices of raw materials such as lithium and cobalt have been rising. Take cobalt as an example. In 2016, the price of cobalt was 200,000 yuan/ton. The current price has exceeded 600,000 yuan/ton, which has doubled in less than three years. As an important battery material, cobalt accounts for The ratio is about 13%. This has formed a huge resistance to the effective reduction of the cost of power lithium-ion batteries. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously improve the technical level of battery energy density and other technical levels through continuous technological innovation and breakthroughs, and tap new battery materials to get rid of bottlenecks. Zhang Xiyong, general manager of Beijing Automotive Group Co., Ltd. predicts that in the next 10 years, power lithium-ion batteries will still be based on ternary batteries, while developing towards high-nickel and new-system batteries. Chen Qingtai believes that the scale of processing is only a shallow level of competition. For power lithium-ion battery companies, the most important thing is to master the core technology. Therefore, it is necessary to process, develop, and pre-research generations with a global perspective to ensure that they are always at the forefront of the world. Among them, the most important thing is to gather talents and maintain sufficient Ru0026D investment. Battery companies will also cooperate with universities and research institutions under the support of the state to carry out basic research on power lithium-ion batteries. At the same time, from the perspective of the development stage, the earliest vehicle-mounted power lithium-ion battery put on the market has begun to enter the decommissioning period. The first wave of large-scale decommissioning is coming soon. Economy and resource reuse are of great significance. More and more companies in my country have begun to study the layout of power lithium-ion battery recycling and echelon utilization industries. In the future, the electric vehicle industry will also closely cooperate with renewable energy. This combination can not only achieve green travel, but also consume a large amount of renewable energy, which has important economic and environmental significance. 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