Is there a bottom line for the energy density and cost of lithium batteries?

Regarding lithium batteries, the most important cost implied by the price includes: data cost, labor cost, production cost and gross profit. From the data since 2014, labor costs and production costs have decreased year by year, because large-scale and automated production have increased production power, which has made a certain contribution to reducing product costs. The decline in data costs is due to the large-scale mining and production of original data. From the perspective of the entire industrial chain, the cost of PACK (battery pack) is continuously increasing with the new energy electric car market, and the market demand continues to expand, making large-scale production a reality. As the cost of battery cells decreases, batteries The group cost has also been declining year by year. Electrode materials, barriers, and electrolyte materials are also declining year by year as the industry scales up. From the perspective of total cost, from 2014 to 2020, the average annual decline in battery cost reached 15.9% during the six years. Among them, the decline was the largest in 2016-2017, with a decline of 32%. The fundamental reason for the cost reduction is primarily the increase in energy density and the increase in production power. The former is the profit obtained by the continuous development of skills, and the latter is the continuous cultivation and growth of the market scale, making intensive and large-scale production a reality, and then completing the increase in production power. ■Conclusive analysis From 109 watt-hours/kg in 2017 to 2020, the energy density will increase to 160 watt-hours/kg. Judging from this new share, the energy density basically maintains an annual increase of 12%. This is consistent with the data I used to make strategic planning in the OEM. Since the completion of the marketization of lithium batteries in the 1990s, the energy density has increased so far and the power has been maintained at about 12% per year. This is the Moore's Law of the lithium battery industry, so using this average annual energy density increase rate can help us predict the profitability of the energy density increase in the next few years. Users who are interested in purchasing new energy vehicles can also use this increase rate to calculate the energy density of the battery that they can obtain in the year they purchased the vehicle. Therefore, the range of pure electric vehicles on the market after 2020 will be more than 500 kilometers, and the cost will be further reduced. Some high-end models are expected to break the 800 kilometers of range. From the perspective of the downward trend of cost, the cost of data has experienced a sharp drop in 2017. And from 2018 to 2020 trend analysis, the possibility of the primary cost decline is still concentrated in the decline of production costs and labor costs. Therefore, the market size is very important, and the decline in production costs and labor costs must be based on the continuous increase in market demand. Only when the market scale is larger, the production power can be increased, and then lower costs can be achieved. Therefore, users can obtain benefits, mainly focusing on the increase in energy density brought about by the development of battery technology and the increase in production power brought about by the scale of the market. Trust, with the continuous advancement of the national policy, after 2020, pure electric vehicles will be able to complete the range and cost of purchasing and commissioning vehicles appropriately. By then, electric vehicles and fuel vehicles will compete and go hand in hand. The age is no longer a dream. Disclaimer: Some pictures and content of the articles published on this site are from the Internet. If there is any infringement, please contact to delete.