Introduction to the reasons for the fluctuations in the value of lithium-ion batteries

Huatai Securities quoted Hongyu’s announcement when it was listed on the New Third Board, suggesting that among the production costs that make up the lithium-ion battery barrier, the largest part of the cost lies in equipment depreciation and labor costs, accounting for nearly half. The important raw materials are polyethylene and dichloride. Methane and white oil account for about 30%, while electricity and gas account for about 20%. In the above-mentioned cost composition, labor cost and water, electricity, gas, etc. are relatively reliable and predictable, while raw materials such as polyethylene are mainly affected by oil prices, and the company cannot control it. Due to the existence of low oil prices, from 2015 to 2017, the unit price of Shanghai Enjie's polyethylene procurement was 30602.29 yuan/ton, 23825.4 yuan/ton and 21646.97 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29.26% during the period. Among the vast factors that affect the gross profit margin of lithium-ion batteries, the value of the product is more obvious than the operating cost. The sharp decline in the gross profit margin of many peers is obviously related to the decline in the value of the barrier. Xingyuan Material implies that the decline in product value is one of the important reasons when it shows the company's performance. This trend of depreciation has not been curbed in 2018. The weekly report of Huaxin Securities disclosed that at the beginning of January 2018, the mainstream quotation for wet process barrier 16μm was between 3.3 yuan and 4.4 yuan per square meter, and by mid-to-late April it further fell to 3 yuan-3.6 yuan per square meter, the lower limit in early May. Further down to 3.5 yuan / square meter. If you take the year as the unit, this trend becomes more and more obvious. How quickly the barrier value of lithium-ion batteries declines is also described in the Chuangxin share acquisition book. From 2015 to 2017, the unit price of Shanghai Enjie coated film was 6.69 yuan/square meter, 5.75 yuan/square meter and 5.56 yuan/square meter, which was a 16.89% drop in three years. In the same period, the unit prices of base film semi-finished products were 3.76 yuan/square meter, 3.85 yuan/square meter, and 3.04 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 19.15%; product unit prices were 4.13 yuan/square meter, 4.3 yuan/square meter and 4.12 yuan/square meter Meter. Moreover, in the sales of Shanghai Enjie base film, the company's important sales are the semi-finished products whose value has dropped significantly. The sales of products are getting less and less, and the proportion in 2016 is less than 10%. It can be seen that, except for base film products, the unit price of the other two major products has fallen close to 20%. The same is true for the Hongyou barrier acquired by Golden Crown Electric. Its base film unit prices for 2015-2016 and January-August 2017 were 4.29 yuan/square meter, 4.02 yuan/square meter and 3.82 yuan/square meter; 2016 and 2017 The unit price of the coated film from January to August was 6.82 yuan/square meter and 6.08 yuan/square meter, both of which were 10% higher. In the income composition of Shanghai Enjie, except for 2016, the revenue of base film and coating film accounted for the same proportion. From 2015 to 2017, the company’s base film revenue was 84.56 million yuan, 179 million yuan and 457 million yuan, and the coating film revenue was 72.13 million yuan, 320 million yuan and 437 million yuan. It accounts for about 50% of the company's revenue. Then, as the value of the coating film continues to decline, how does Shanghai Enjie maintain a high gross profit? In the acquisition of Chuangxin shares, Shanghai Enjie gave a lot of attention to its performance, that is, the net profit after the deduction of non-discrimination in 2017-2019 is not less than 378 million yuan, 555 million yuan and 763 million yuan. If the acquisition is completed within 2018, the net profit in 2020 will be no less than 852 million yuan. According to the audit report, in 2017, Shanghai Enjie deducted non-net profit of 387 million yuan, which just completed the performance review. It is worth mentioning that compared with its competitors, Shanghai Enjie’s accounts receivable provision is clearly loose. Regarding accounts receivable within one year, both Xingyuan Material and Cangzhou Mingzhu are accrued uniformly based on the 5% standard, while Shanghai Enjie has zero accrual within 6 months and 6 months-1 year receivables. Only 5% is accrued on the account. Shanghai Enjie’s audit report shows that in 2017, the company’s accounts receivable was 294 million yuan, of which within 6 months it was 278 million yuan. If the above-mentioned accounts receivable are accrued according to the standard of 5% in the same industry, the above-mentioned accounts receivable will be accrued. With the provision of 13.91 million yuan in bad debt preparations, Shanghai Enjie's net profit after deduction has shrunk to 373 million yuan, which means that the company will not be able to complete its 2017 performance. Regarding future performance considerations, Shanghai Enjie also predicts that the value of lithium-ion battery barriers will decline, but the increase in production brought about by the construction of the Zhuhai base in construction can supplement the decline in value, so as to complete the performance management at a volume premium. The acquisition book introduces that the 8 lithium-ion battery production lines currently under construction by Shanghai Enjie are all included in the profit forecast. Except for one production line in Shanghai, which has been put into operation, the 800 million yuan raised by the innovative shares is mainly used in Zhuhai With the establishment of five wet production lines in the first phase of the base, the output will reach 417 million square meters. Shanghai Enjie will build 12 production lines in Zhuhai, and 3 production lines have been put into operation at the end of December 2017. The new output has been included in the performance management, and whether the value can meet expectations becomes the key. According to the forecast of the acquisition book, from 2017 to 2020, the sales unit price of coated film will be 5.63 yuan/square meter, 5.35 yuan/square meter, 5.24 yuan/square meter and 5.14 yuan/square meter, and the predicted unit price of base film semi-finished products will be 3.66 yuan/square meter. Yuan/square meter, 3.29 yuan/square meter, 3.13 yuan/square meter and 2.97 yuan/square meter, the unit price of base film products is 4.08 yuan/square meter, 3.67 yuan/square meter, 3.49 yuan/square meter and 3.32 yuan/square meter Meter. However, according to the actual environment that Shanghai Enjie has disclosed, the unit prices of the company's base film semi-finished products, products and coating films in 2017 were 3.04 yuan/square meter, 4.12 yuan/square meter and 5.56 yuan/square meter. Except for the slightly higher base film products with the lowest income, the unit prices of base film semi-products and coated films were lower than expected. Among them, the base film semi-products dropped significantly by 16.94% compared to expectations, and the coated film was also less than expected. Disclaimer: Some pictures and content of the articles published on this site are from the Internet. If there is any infringement, please contact to delete. Previous: Introduction to the production process of lithium ion battery pole piece