Comprehensive decomposition of the development prospects of storage batteries, lithium batteries, and hydrogen energy

1) Status and development trend of battery industry my country is the world's largest lead-acid battery processing country and lead-acid battery consumer country. According to the global lead-acid battery output, my country’s lead-acid battery output accounts for 45% of the global lead-acid battery output, accounting for the highest proportion; the United States’ lead-acid battery output follows closely behind, accounting for 32%, and Japan The output of lead-acid batteries in the world accounts for less than one-third of my country's lead-acid batteries, which is 13%. The reason why my country’s lead-acid battery production accounts for a large share of the world’s output is that in recent years, my country’s lead-acid battery manufacturing technology has approached the Has reached the international advanced level. Data show that from 2010 to 2017, the global lead-acid battery market has steadily increased. In 2013, the global lead-acid battery market broke through US$40 billion for the first time, and has remained above US$40 billion since then. In 2017, the global lead-acid battery market was approximately US$42.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 0.70%. According to statistics, lead-acid batteries accounted for 54.67% of the battery market in 2015. From a global perspective, the market size of lead-acid batteries in 2015 was US$42.2 billion. This market size will still maintain an annual growth rate of 2%-5%. It is expected that the market size of lead-acid batteries will hardly be large in 2020-2023. Rise, but will remain at the $40 billion level. During the Eleventh Five-Year Plan period, the battery market expanded rapidly, with annual output increasing at an average rate of about 20%. According to SMM statistics, by the end of 2020, the output of the storage battery industry has exceeded 400 million KVAh. In the next few years, the lead-acid battery industry will still occupy an important position in the national economy. The sales revenue of storage battery accounts for a large proportion in the entire battery industry. Although it is partially replaced by lithium batteries in the field of energy storage, it is difficult to shake the market position of storage batteries. According to statistics, lead accounts for about 70% of the total cost of batteries. The weight of a 60V20AH battery on the market is generally about 35kg, and the lead content of a lead-acid battery is generally about 65%, that is, 22.75kg of lead, that is, the average battery consumes 18.96kg of lead per kilowatt-hour of electricity. Considering that the battery market accounts for more than half of the market and is still slowly rising, the demand for metallic lead in batteries is still worth expecting for a short period of time. (2) Important policy support for the development of lead-acid batteries. Since the formal implementation of the 'Access Conditions for the Storage Battery Industry' on July 1, 2012, the lead-acid battery industry has accelerated the elimination of outdated production, increased industrial concentration, and promoted transformation and upgrading and green development. In this regard, notable achievements have been made. Looking at the entire lead-acid battery market, from the perspective of the number of competitions, exit barriers, degree of homogeneity, and competition levels, the lead-acid battery industry is at a mature stage. In the first half of this year, the State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Standardization Administration formally approved the publication of the national standard 'Technical Specifications for Waste Lead-acid Battery RecyclingThe standard stipulates solutions and management measures for the collection, storage, transportation, and transfer of waste lead-acid batteries in the social circulation category, and will be officially implemented on October 1, 2020. (3) Batteries are facing numerous challenges 1. Impact of the new national standard for electric bicycles: On May 15, 2020, according to the national standard management procedures, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology organized the revision of the mandatory national standard of 'E-bike Safety Technical Specifications' (GB17761-2020), approved and announced by the State Administration for Market Regulation and the National Standardization Administration of the People’s Republic of China on the 'National Standards Notice of the People's Republic of China (No. 7 of 2020)The new national standard strictly limits the weight of the electric bicycle. For lead-acid batteries, the battery's own weight is too large (or the energy density is too low) and cannot be broken under the existing technical framework, so if the new national standard models want to continue to use Lead-acid batteries can only be at the expense of battery life. Taking the 48V12Ah lead-acid battery as an example, usually the weight of the battery of this specification is above 16Kg, which means that the weight of the vehicle without batteries should be controlled below 38Kg, and the size of the vehicle cannot exceed the standard. The big challenge. According to SMM research, since the beginning of last year, the draft of the new national standard for electric bicycles was introduced, and battery companies have begun to carry out lightweight technical reforms for lead-acid batteries in accordance with the new national standard. Among them, a small number of companies have completed the technical transformation experiment from May to June, and implemented it in July with the 'Valve Regulated Lead-Acid Batteries for Electric Mopeds' (GB/T22199-2017), and officially sold the weight-reduced batteries to the market in batches. . According to the report of the battery processing company, after the completion of the battery weight reduction technical reform, the amount of lead used in the raw materials for the month decreased by about 5% compared with before the technical reform. 2. The rise of new energy vehicles makes the road ahead for batteries slim? Lead-acid batteries are currently the world’s largest production and most versatile battery, but since the outbreak of the new energy automobile industry in 2015, the status of lead-acid batteries has been challenged. It is reported that since 2015, domestic lead-acid battery output has begun to show a slight decline. The important thing is that the development of the electric bicycle industry powered by traditional lead-acid batteries has reached the saturation stage, and the promotion of domestic lead-acid batteries has slowed down. With the gradual replacement of traditional automobile lead-acid batteries by new energy vehicle batteries, especially in 2020 and beyond, its replacement impact and impact will further rise. Therefore, the domestic lead-acid battery production and sales may continue to shrink, and the development of the overall domestic lead-acid battery industry in the later period may be in a relatively passive pattern. Disclaimer: Some pictures and content of articles published on this site are from the Internet. If there is any infringement, please contact to delete. Previous: How to guard against battery life degradation?