Can the dispute over the safety of ternary batteries result in lithium iron phosphate batteries?

According to the requirements of the New Energy Vehicle Subsidy Policy in June this year, the vehicle subsidy will be linked to the mileage and energy density: the subsidy threshold for the energy density of the new energy vehicle battery system is 105Wh/Kg, of which 105 (inclusive)-120Wh/kg models The subsidy is 0.6 times, 120 (inclusive)-140Wh/kg models are given 1 times subsidy, 140 (inclusive)-160Wh/kg models are given 1.1 times subsidy, and 160Wh/kg and above models are given 1.2 times. Times subsidy. The orientation of the subsidy policy and the high energy density requirements of passenger car installed batteries have reduced the market share of lithium iron phosphate batteries and the installed capacity has shrunk. In addition, the endurance anxiety of the consumer market is also a major influencing factor: for electric vehicles, especially passenger cars, the amount of power determines the length of the vehicle's mileage, while the energy density of the battery directly affects the power of the battery pack. , It can be said that it is the straight determining factor of the continued mileage. However, some subdivision models that do not pursue high endurance still selectively use lithium iron phosphate batteries, such as passenger cars for intercity commuting. Data show that in the first three quarters of this year, the total installed capacity of electric passenger vehicles in my country was 16.06GWh, of which ternary lithium batteries accounted for 87%, accounting for 13.98GWh; lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 12%, accounting for 1.92GWh. Four months ago, ternary lithium still occupies the absolute advantage of the power lithium-ion battery market. Data show that the installed capacity of lithium-ion batteries in my country's new energy vehicle market in July was 3.34 Gwh, a year-on-year increase of 29.01%. Among them, the installed capacity of ternary lithium batteries is 2.35Gwh, accounting for 70.26%; the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 0.93Gwh, accounting for 27.81%. The common ternary lithium battery cell is 200Wh/kg, and the energy density of the battery system is about 140Wh/kg; while the previous lithium iron phosphate battery cell energy density is about 140-150Wh/kg, and the energy density of the battery system is about 140-150Wh/kg. It is 110-120Wh/kg. It is this gap that has caused the market demand for lithium iron phosphate batteries to be rapidly sluggish, and the installed capacity has declined, which has also led to a serious surplus of lithium iron phosphate materials and a continuous decline in prices. At the beginning of this year, the mainstream price of lithium iron phosphate materials was 90,000-95,000 yuan/ton, and the current figure is about 60,000-70,000 yuan/ton, a drop of about 30%. With the implementation of the new subsidy policy, the market share and installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate have steadily increased, but the decline of lithium iron phosphate has not been maintained for long. In July and August this year, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries has gradually increased, especially in the passenger car category. Public data shows that my country’s power lithium-ion battery output in August totaled 6.69 GWh, of which ternary battery output was 3.78 GWh, accounting for 56.51% of total output, and lithium iron phosphate battery output was 2.83 GWh, accounting for 42. 35%, both occupy an absolute dominant position. Judging from the battery market development in the first eight months of this year, after the implementation of the new subsidy policy, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries in new energy passenger cars and special vehicles has increased. The data in September changed more clearly. In that month, the installed capacity of lithium-ion batteries for new energy vehicles in my country reached 6.01GWh, a year-on-year increase of 66.32%. Among them, ternary lithium batteries accounted for 59.8%, accounting for 3.59GWh; lithium iron phosphate batteries accounted for 39.2%, accounting for 2.35GWh. A series of signs of recovery have made lithium iron phosphate regained in popularity. In addition to the expansion of the technical route, the development of the energy storage market is also an important factor driving the rise of lithium iron phosphate. In terms of technical routes, more and more range-extended electric vehicles are beginning to use lithium iron phosphate batteries, which can not only improve the safety of vehicles, but also reduce the cost of vehicle manufacturing, and help extend the range of electric vehicles Zhang Da in the new energy vehicle market. Share. For example, the lowest market prices for power lithium-ion batteries with a battery capacity of 25Ah and a voltage of 48V, lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries are generally RMB 1,020 and RMB 1,210. In the energy storage market, thanks to some power lithium-ion battery companies starting to deploy energy storage business, the market demand for lithium iron phosphate has begun to expand. According to the energy storage report of GTMResearch, an international market research organization, the decline in the price of lithium batteries slowed down in 2018, but the use of grid-side energy storage projects in my country has continued to increase the amount of lithium iron phosphate batteries. On the other hand, with the continuous improvement of technology, the energy density of some lithium iron phosphate batteries has reached the level of ternary NCM523 (the mainstream NCM523 battery energy density is 160-200Wh/kg), which has basically reached the highest subsidy requirement. And compared to ternary lithium batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries have more advantages in terms of stability. Finally, the subsidy has fallen sharply. The reason why lithium iron phosphate has low risk in the supply and response price of raw materials is that no precious metals such as cobalt are used, which will help battery processing companies to reduce cost pressure to a certain extent. The decisive factor for the recovery is that the market has become more clear with the signs of recovery of lithium iron phosphate, and there are many controversies in the industry. One of the focal points of the dispute is the security issue. In general, the more energy concentrated in the unit space of a single cell, the greater the hazard and the lower the safety. Therefore, the safety of lithium iron phosphate batteries with lower energy density is slightly higher than that of ternary lithium batteries. From a technical point of view, the way to increase the energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries is to improve the overall efficiency of the battery. The higher the grouping efficiency, the fewer safety components in the battery. 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