Analysis of lithium battery prices and costs will become a trend

The rise of the new energy automobile industry has expanded the market's demand for lithium resources, causing the price of lithium batteries to soar. However, recently, a report pointed out that the supply of lithium batteries in the future may exceed the demand for lithium in new energy vehicles, and the price of lithium batteries may fall by 45% in 2021. At present, my country is the world’s largest application market for chemical energy storage. From 2016 to the end of June 2017, my country’s newly-added electrochemical energy storage capacity under construction and operation reached 1.35GW, which is the cumulative installed capacity from 2000 to 2015 9.6 times the scale. However, related to other new energy power generation installed capacity, energy storage is still thunderous and rainy. With the rapid decline in the cost of lithium batteries, the lithium battery energy storage market will usher in an explosive rise in the next few years. According to industry insiders, the next certain blue ocean industry in the next 10 years is the energy storage market. During the manufacturing process of lithium batteries, processes such as electrode manufacturing and battery assembly will have an impact on the safety of the battery. At present, some manufacturers that specialize in processing and manufacturing lithium batteries in the industry have mastered sophisticated patented technology, which has greatly improved the safety of lithium batteries. Industry insiders made it clear that in two years, lithium batteries will replace more than 60% of lead-acid batteries, and at the same time, the cost of lithium batteries will drop by 40% after two years, even lower than the price of lead-acid batteries. At present, the price of lithium manganese oxide, a raw material for lithium batteries, has fallen by 10%, which is fully in line with the trend of significant cost reduction in two years. If not even two years, the price advantage of lithium batteries will be fully utilized. With the prominence of performance advantages, lithium batteries have gradually expanded the market scale, and the increase in demand has directly led to the expansion of production and the decrease in manufacturing costs, which in turn stimulated further market demand. In this way, the lithium battery industry has embarked on a virtuous cycle of development, subsidizing a major slump, lowering prices by downstream car manufacturers, and rising prices for upstream materials. Under the pressure of the three mountains, the life of power lithium battery companies has become more difficult. First look at the decline in subsidies. The subsidy policy in 2017, in terms of national subsidies, has been reduced by 20% compared to 2016. Taking the prescribed standards as an example, the total subsidy has dropped by about 40%, because from the perspective of land subsidies in ordinary areas, According to the regulations, the land subsidy has even dropped by 60% compared to 2016 (for reference only, because the subsidy policy is different in each place). Followed by lower prices by downstream car manufacturers. Data from the Starting Point Research (SPIR) show that at the beginning of 2017, the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries was about 2.60 yuan/Wh; the price of ternary batteries was about 2.50 yuan/Wh; by the end of 2017, the price of lithium iron phosphate batteries It has dropped to about 1.55 yuan/Wh, and the ternary battery has dropped to about 1.45 yuan/Wh. The two major power lithium batteries have reduced prices by 40% in 2017. The purchase tax exemption will end at the end of this year, and the current subsidy standard will be reduced by 20% in 2018. Among them, the subsidy for passenger cars and special vehicles is reduced by about 20%, and the subsidy for passenger cars is reduced by 30%-50%. The proportion of local supporting subsidies has dropped from 1:1 to 1:0.5. New energy car companies that rely heavily on government subsidies to nurture were severely hit for a while and demanded that power lithium battery companies cut their prices sharply. Disclaimer: Some pictures and content of articles published on this site are from the Internet. If there is any infringement, please contact to delete. Previous: What is the first charging method for Ni-MH batteries?