Analysis and Forecast of China's Electric Bicycle Lithium Battery Model Output from 2010 to 2020

2010-2020 China's electric bicycle lithium battery model output analysis and forecast (data source: SMM, China Bicycle Association) Lithium-ion batteries have been used in the electric bicycle market as early as 2010, but because the technology of lithium batteries was not as good as lead-acid at that time The battery is mature and the price remains high. Until 2018, the penetration rate of lithium battery models reached 12%, with an output of 3.93 million vehicles. SMM believes that with the improvement of Chinese residents' consumption level and the strong implementation of the new national standard, the penetration rate of lithium battery models in the Chinese electric bicycle market will gradually increase in the next two years. However, there are still price advantages and channels in the lead-acid battery market. Advantages, the market position in Tier 3, Tier 4 and below cities is difficult to shake in the short term. It is expected that the penetration rate of lithium batteries will increase to 20% in 2020, and the output is expected to exceed 6 million vehicles. The acceptance of lithium batteries in the electric bicycle industry is mainly based on the consideration of the following factors: cost, performance, safety, policy: The purchase cost is calculated by SMM, and the total purchase cost of the 48V12Ah lithium battery is equivalent to that of the battery replacement cost. It is 25% lower than ordinary lead-acid batteries, and 41% lower than black gold lead-acid batteries; the total purchase cost of 48V20Ah lithium batteries is slightly lower than ordinary lead-acid batteries by 1%, compared to black gold lead The acid battery is 15% lower. In terms of performance, at the same cost, the current mainstream lead-acid battery electric bicycles on the market have a range of 5-10km lower than that of lithium battery models, 400-1400 fewer cycles, and a shorter service life of about 2 years. In terms of safety, with the popularity of lithium battery models, more and more lithium battery manufacturers enter the electric bicycle market, and will continue to eliminate outdated production capacity and provide more high-quality and safe products. In terms of policies, on March 14, 2019, the three departments issued relevant opinions on strengthening the supervision of the implementation of the national standard for electric bicycles, and stated that before the implementation of the new standard, relevant departments should jointly organize a survey of all electric bicycle manufacturers in the jurisdiction to supervise Enterprises upgrade their production lines in accordance with the new standards. During the transitional period of the implementation of the standards, it is strictly forbidden to produce electric bicycles that do not meet the new standards or the old standards, and use multiple channels to digest inventory vehicles that do not meet the new standards. After the implementation of the new standard, the market supervision department should strengthen the management of compulsory product certification (CCC certification) for electric bicycles, strengthen inspections of certification agencies and manufacturers, ensure product consistency, and prevent vehicles that do not meet the new standard from obtaining CCC certification and entering the market. For this reason, relevant experts from Guangdong Institute of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine stated to SMM that since all technical standards of the new national standard are compulsory, after the official implementation of the new national standard, if there is an electric bicycle that does not meet the standard, it will be directly listed as an electric motorcycle. Cars are allocated to motor vehicles for management. In the various regulations, since it is clarified that the weight of the whole product does not exceed 55kg, the policy orientation will make the electric bicycle industry develop in the direction of light weight, which also meets the user's requirements for the convenience, safety and environmental protection of electric bicycles. Not only that, electric bicycles can further improve their own energy utilization efficiency and increase their cruising range through light weight. The weight of lithium-ion batteries is about a quarter of that of lead-acid batteries, which also makes lithium-ion batteries have great advantages in electric bicycles. The demand for lithium-ion batteries in the electric bicycle market is growing rapidly, and the manganese-based multiple composite lithium battery has long been optimistic about the demand for lithium-ion batteries for electric bicycles in China from 2010 to 2020 (data source: SMM) In the electric bicycle market, the demand for lithium-ion batteries It is mainly composed of three parts: new demand, battery replacement demand, and lithium-ion battery demand. SMM predicts that in 2018, the total demand for lithium-ion batteries for electric bicycles will be 6.4GWh, the total demand in 2019 will be 8.9GWh, and the total demand in 2020 will be 13.3GWh. From 2010 to 2020, the compound annual growth rate of China's demand for lithium-ion batteries for electric bicycles is 66.7%. In 2018, 12% of electric bicycle batteries used lithium-ion batteries. Among them, ternary batteries are the most widely used, followed by manganese multi-element composite lithium batteries. Lithium manganese oxide batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries each account for a small share. At present, the price difference of various types of batteries is not obvious, but as more and more battery manufacturers enter the market, cost performance must be one of the important factors that will change the future competitive landscape. SMM believes that in the future, cost advantages will gradually manifest, and the manganese-based multi-element composite lithium battery with the best overall performance will be even more promising. It is estimated that by 2020, the demand for ternary batteries for electric bicycles will be 5.3GWh, the demand for manganese multi-element composite lithium batteries will be 4GWh, and the demand for lithium manganese oxide batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries will be 2.7GWh and 1.3 GWh, respectively. GWh. 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